Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

With the 2024 Presidential election approaching, you may be curious about how it could affect the housing market. Let’s take a closer look.

Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown

Home sales tend to slow down slightly every fall due to seasonal trends. However, data from BTIG shows that in election years, there’s often a more noticeable dip in sales during the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below):

The reason? Uncertainty. Many consumers postpone major decisions, such as buying or selling a home, as they wait to see the election’s outcome. This pattern has repeated itself in past election years and is especially evident in the housing market.  

This year is no exception. A recent survey from Redfin revealed that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers are holding off until after the election. Nearly a quarter of these buyers are pressing pause, likely driven by the same sense of uncertainty.

Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election

The good news is that these delayed sales aren’t gone for good—they’re simply postponed. Historically, home sales tend to bounce back once the election is over. In fact, data shows that sales have increased 82% of the time in the year following an election (see chart below):

This rebound happens because, once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers gain clarity about the future and feel more confident making decisions. As a result, home sales typically see a boost.

What To Expect in 2025

If history is any guide, we can expect more home sales next year. The latest forecasts support this outlook. As shown in the graph below, the housing market is on track to sell 4.6 million homes this year, with projections rising to 5.2 million total sales in 2025 (see graph below):

This aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.  

While the market may feel like it’s slowing down now, it’s likely just a temporary dip rather than a lasting trend. As in past election years, once the uncertainty clears, both buyers and sellers are expected to re-enter the market.

Bottom Line

It’s essential to remember that while election years often cause a short-term slowdown in the housing market, this pause is usually temporary. Those sales aren’t lost—they’re just delayed. Historical data shows that home sales generally increase the year after a Presidential election, and forecasts suggest 2025 will follow the same trend. If you’re holding off for more clarity, rest assured that the market is expected to gain momentum in the coming months.